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Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Traders turn to dollar for shelter

function floatContent(){var paraNum = "3"paraNum = paraNum - 1;var tb = document.getElementById('floating-con');var nl = document.getElementById('floating-target');if(tb.getElementsByTagName("div").length> 0){if (nl.getElementsByTagName("p").length>= paraNum){nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName("p")[paraNum]);}else {if (nl.getElementsByTagName("p").length == 3){nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName("p")[2]);}else {nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName("p")[0]);}}}}The dollar advanced this week as rising risk aversion boosted haven demand for the US currency.The dollar suffered the previous week following the G20 meeting of global leaders in London as an agreed boost in funds available to the International Monetary Fund to fight the financial crisis lifted equities and investor risk appetite.EDITOR’S CHOICEOverview: Rally tempered by return of the bears - Apr-10On Wall Street: Reality check on values and returns is overdue - Apr-10Wall St rally extends into fifth week - Apr-10China output raises fears for aluminium - Apr-10Irish banks boosted by debt deal - Apr-10Goldman outlook dulls appetite for Cadbury - Apr-10But the rally in equity markets faded in recent days as the onset of the first-quarter corporate earnings season unsettled investors. This fed through to currency markets, which continued to be driven by the ebb and flow of risk appetite.Furthermore, the G20 plans to increase funds for the IMF drew criticism in some quarters.Jurgen Stark, an European Central Bank executive board member, described the creation of the IMF’s special drawing rights, announced after the G20 meeting, as ”helicopter money” for the globe.Analysts said the comments suggested fears of inflation still lurked at the heart of the ECB.Ulrich Leuchtmann at Commerzbank said currency markets were suffering a hangover after the G20 party. “The initial euphoria after the G20 summit seems to have faded,” he said.“The exodus out of the dollar as a safe haven seems less and less likely.”Over the week, the dollar rose 2.2 per cent to $1.3199 against the euro, advanced 2 per cent to SFr1.1521 against the Swiss franc and climbed 1.3 per cent to $1.4646 against the pound.The dollar also received a boost as data showed the US trade deficit narrowed to $26bn in February, its smallest level in nine years.Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital, said the perfect mix of stronger-than-expected US exports and weaker-than-expected imports was very good news for the currency.“This is potentially a very big deal,” he said. “It is good news for the US economy and certainly significant new information that should underpin the dollar in the longer term.”Meanwhile, the pound advanced against the euro, rising 1 per cent to £0.9010 over the week.The pound showed little reaction to Thursday’s decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5 per cent and its announcement that it was on track to complete its programme to boost liquidity in the financial system by purchasing £75bn of gilts in the next two months.Steve Barrow at Standard Bank said while the gilt purchase plan could bring more pain for sterling, one thing the pound had in its favour was that it was already very cheap.“Our belief is that sterling’s undervaluation will help the pound avoid falling prey to the avalanche of cash that’s coming the market’s way,” he said.“It is notable that since the announcement of the Bank’s gilt-buying operations the pound has not really plummeted.Elsewhere, the yen was flat at Y100.33 against the dollar over the week as the Japanese currency also found haven support from the rise in risk aversion.Analysts said figures showing a slight improvement in Japan’s trade balance also supported the yen, suggesting the worst of the plunge in the country’s current account balance might be behind it.The yen rose 2.2 per cent to Y132.48 against the euro on the week and gained 1.3 per cent to Y146.96 against the pound.
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